India's Growth Ambitions May Depend on Weather

India's delicate balance between human ingenuity and environmental vulnerability is at risk as record-breaking temperatures and extreme weather events challenge its vast population. Climate change is becoming a significant obstacle on the path to prosperity, highlighting the need for sustainable solutions.

India, a nation with less land and water than many countries, supports nearly a fifth of the world's population on a land area barely bigger than Argentina and with less water than Colombia. However, the recent scorching temperatures in New Delhi signal that this remarkable achievement is under threat. This not only affects the millions sweltering in the world's second-largest city but also impacts the country's economic aspirations.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has promoted the idea that India is on the path to becoming the fastest-growing G20 economy. "India is on the path to becoming a developed nation," he declared at a rally in West Bengal. However, even as he spoke, the country was grappling with extreme weather conditions, including the first heatstroke death recorded in Delhi amid temperatures as high as 52.9°C (127.2°F) recorded by one (possibly erroneous) sensor.

Heatwaves are taking a toll on India, with recent deaths reported in Rajasthan and Odisha. Nine people died from heat in Rajasthan last week, and 10 suspected heat-related deaths occurred in just six hours at a single hospital in Odisha. Even Bollywood star Shah Rukh Khan was hospitalized for dehydration in Ahmedabad this month.

These extreme temperatures are not just a health hazard but also pose a threat to economic growth, particularly in agriculture. The southwest monsoon rains, vital for India's farm sector, are increasingly unpredictable, with pre-monsoon heatwaves causing significant crop damage. For instance, a heatwave in 2022 reduced wheat output by about 4.5%. Crops that survive the heat can still be spoiled by the lack of refrigeration, leading to double-digit increases in vegetable prices in eight out of the past ten months.

The rising temperatures and changing weather patterns also affect labor productivity. About 93% of India's workforce is employed in informal jobs, where extreme heat forces workers to stop, hampering construction and other outdoor activities crucial for economic development. The construction industry, vital for India's growth, faces additional challenges as both the monsoon and heatwaves limit the effective working period. India was estimated to have only about 30% of the urban infrastructure it needs by the end of 2022.

India contributes minimally to global carbon emissions, with a per capita emission rate far lower than that of developed countries. However, the nation bears significant impacts from climate change. Efforts to transition to renewable energy are underway, but progress is slow. For example, China installed about 4.5 gigawatts of solar panels for every gigawatt India installed in the first quarter of this year.

Public charging stations for electric vehicles, which could help reduce pollution and oil dependence, are also insufficient. As of now, there are only 12,146 public charging stations in operation, which is less than 1% of the number needed by 2030.

Every political party aims to transform India into a prosperous nation. However, frequent extreme weather events and slow infrastructure development may hinder these aspirations. India's future growth and development hinge on addressing climate challenges and accelerating the shift towards sustainable practices.

India's challenges are immense, but so are its ambitions. The bridge to a developed future is weakened with every scorching summer and severe monsoon. The country must adopt urgent and effective measures to combat climate change, improve agricultural resilience, and expand infrastructure to ensure a sustainable and prosperous future for its 1.4 billion citizens.