India's Challenge: Creating Two Americas in Five Decades

India’s journey towards becoming a developed nation is filled with both opportunity and challenge. As discussed by Amitabh Kant, India's G20 Sherpa and former CEO of NITI Aayog, during the NDTV World Summit, the country needs to grow on multiple fronts, focusing on manufacturing, urbanization, and agriculture to transform its economy. With half a billion people set to move towards cities over the next fifty years, India’s task is to create the equivalent of "two Americas" within its borders.

The Path to Urbanization and Manufacturing Growth

India cannot rely solely on its service sector to fuel economic growth. Kant emphasized that manufacturing must play a key role in India's future. Currently, manufacturing contributes 17.5% to the GDP, but this figure needs to rise to 25%. Urbanization will accompany this growth, with 500 million people expected to enter urban areas in the next five decades. This significant demographic shift will require extensive infrastructure, resources, and planning to accommodate the influx of new urban residents.

As a result, India must adopt a multi-faceted strategy. Kant explained, "India needs to grow on all fronts — services, manufacturing, urbanization, and agriculture. For the manufacturing and urbanization to take off, the workforce must be skilled in new fields like artificial intelligence, quantum computing, machine learning, and green hydrogen technology. In response to these needs, India has launched missions in each of these areas, including the semiconductor and green hydrogen missions."

Boosting Agricultural Productivity

Agriculture currently employs nearly 45% of India’s population, but Kant believes this needs to be reduced. Productivity in the agricultural sector must improve so that fewer people are required to work in this field. By freeing up workers for other industries, particularly manufacturing and services, India can achieve more balanced growth.

To transition these workers, the country will need significant efforts in reskilling and vocational training. This is crucial to preparing the workforce for modern manufacturing jobs and tech-driven roles that will drive India’s future economy.

Atmanirbhar Bharat: India in Global Value Chains

The concept of Atmanirbharta (self-reliance) has gained significant attention in recent years, but Kant clarified that this does not mean isolationism. India must be an essential part of global value chains to sustain long-term growth. “You cannot grow at rates of 9-10% for three decades or more unless you integrate deeply into global markets,” Kant said.

To achieve its goal of becoming a $30 trillion economy by 2047, India’s GDP must increase ninefold, and per capita income must grow eight times. Manufacturing output, however, must expand sixteen times. This level of growth will require aggressive exports and increased production capabilities. Kant pointed out that initiatives like the production-linked investment scheme are critical in helping India ramp up manufacturing.

The Importance of Large-Scale Manufacturing

For India to penetrate global markets effectively, it needs scale. Kant explained that India needs 10,000 large manufacturing companies to become competitive on the world stage. These companies would create jobs, innovate, and export products, contributing significantly to the economy. He also noted that 12 Indian states would need to consistently grow at over 10% annually to meet these ambitious goals.

Growth in the manufacturing sector must be driven by both public and private sectors. Large enterprises and startups alike need to focus on scaling their operations and reaching global markets.

Investing in Ambition and Hunger

The key to India’s future lies in its states and their ability to embrace ambition and hunger for rapid growth. States must take advantage of India’s young, dynamic population and the increasing demand for innovative products and services in global markets.

According to Kant, this ambition must be reflected in every level of governance and business, with the right policies and investment in skills, technology, and infrastructure. India’s future as a developed nation will be determined by the ability of its states and businesses to act swiftly and embrace change.

Conclusion

India's growth story, as explained by Amitabh Kant, requires a multifaceted approach that includes enhancing manufacturing, promoting urbanization, improving agricultural productivity, and ensuring deeper integration into global markets. With a strong focus on skilling the workforce and creating opportunities for large-scale industries, India can rise to the challenge of becoming a developed economy in the next five decades.

By leveraging its demographic dividend, innovative technologies, and forward-thinking policies, India can indeed create "two Americas" within its borders, becoming a hub of economic prosperity, innovation, and opportunity. However, the journey will require coordinated efforts from both the public and private sectors, as well as the ambition and hunger to drive progress.