Moody’s Lowers India’s Growth Forecast to 7% for FY25

Global ratings agency Moody’s has lowered India’s economic growth forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2025 to 7%, a reduction from the 8.2% growth recorded in the previous year. This adjustment comes in the context of both domestic and international challenges, including a broader slowdown in global economic activity and declining private investments in India. Despite the revision, Moody’s notes that India’s economy remains strong, driven by its robust fundamentals.

According to Moody’s latest report, the downgrade reflects weaker-than-expected industrial growth and subdued private investment. However, the agency highlighted a positive trend in India’s GDP per capita at purchasing power parity (PPP), which rose by 11% year-on-year to reach $10,233 in FY23.

Broader Economic Context

This forecast adjustment aligns with similar revisions from other institutions. The Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI), in its Economic Outlook Survey, recently reduced its GDP growth estimate for FY24-25 to 6.4%, down from an earlier prediction of 7%. FICCI’s report attributes this downgrade to slower growth in industrial output and a decline in private-sector investments.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has also revised its projections, lowering India’s GDP growth forecast for FY24 to 6.5% and for FY25-26 to 7%, down from 7.2%. ADB pointed to tight monetary policies as a key factor in these adjustments. According to the ADB, higher interest rates have curbed housing demand and dampened private investment, both of which are essential drivers of economic growth.

Sectoral Growth and Challenges

India’s economic slowdown in FY25 is evident from its fiscal second-quarter performance, where GDP growth fell to 5.4%, below expectations. Industrial output grew by a modest 3.6% year-on-year, indicating sluggish activity in this critical sector. While the industrial sector faced challenges, other areas of the economy continued to show resilience.

The agriculture sector grew by 3.5%, reflecting stability in rural demand, while the services sector expanded at a robust 7.1%. Services, which have traditionally been a key driver of India’s economy, remain a bright spot, contributing significantly to employment and exports.

However, geopolitical uncertainties, including disruptions in global supply chains, continue to weigh heavily on India’s economic trajectory. Adverse weather conditions, such as erratic monsoon patterns, have further complicated recovery efforts, especially in the agricultural sector.

Monetary Policy and Investment Climate

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has also revised its growth forecast for FY25. In December 2024, the central bank reduced its projection to 6.6%, down from its earlier estimate of 7.2%. The RBI cited global economic headwinds and inflationary pressures as key reasons for the downgrade.

Tight monetary policy measures aimed at combating inflation have had mixed results. While these policies have helped control price rises, they have also made borrowing more expensive for businesses and households. As a result, private investment has slowed, and housing demand has softened, impacting overall economic momentum.

India’s Resilience Amid Challenges

Despite these downward revisions, India’s economy remains one of the fastest-growing among major global economies. The 7% growth forecast for FY25, while lower than previous projections, still represents robust expansion compared to many other countries facing recessionary pressures.

India’s demographic advantages, including a large and growing workforce, provide a strong foundation for long-term growth. Additionally, government initiatives aimed at boosting infrastructure development and digital transformation are expected to support economic activity in the coming years.

The rise in India’s GDP per capita at PPP by 11% year-on-year is another encouraging sign. This increase reflects improvements in living standards and purchasing power, which could drive domestic consumption—a critical component of economic growth.

Future Outlook

While Moody’s and other institutions have lowered their growth forecasts, there is optimism about India’s medium-term prospects. Key reforms in taxation, ease of doing business, and labor markets have laid the groundwork for sustained economic growth. Moreover, the government’s focus on renewable energy, electric vehicles, and technology-driven industries positions India as a leader in the global transition toward a more sustainable economy.

However, several risks remain. The impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly in Europe and the Middle East, continues to disrupt global supply chains, affecting trade and investment flows. Domestically, the need to address structural issues in land, labor, and capital markets remains urgent. Accelerating reforms in these areas will be critical to unlocking India’s full economic potential.

Conclusion

Moody’s revision of India’s growth forecast to 7% for FY25 underscores the challenges posed by a slowing global economy and domestic structural constraints. While the forecast is lower than previous estimates, it still reflects a healthy rate of growth, particularly in the context of global economic uncertainties.

India’s strong performance in the services sector, rising per capita income, and ongoing government initiatives provide reasons for cautious optimism. However, addressing challenges in the industrial sector, boosting private investment, and ensuring macroeconomic stability will be essential for sustaining growth in the years ahead.

As India navigates these challenges, its resilience and adaptability will play a pivotal role in shaping its economic future. With the right mix of policies and reforms, the country has the potential to emerge as a key driver of global economic growth.